We are facing unfamiliar territory.
Sir John Curtice is an expert in polling, but even non-experts can see that the Labour government has had a difficult start.
Less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide victory, two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off, according to a new Ipsos poll.
The prime minister’s favorability rating is dropping, while Nigel Farage’s is rising.
Image: Ipsos favorability towards politicians
Sir John tells Sky News, “We have never seen a government start with such a low vote share as Labour did in July, with just 33.7%.”
He adds, “It’s hard to find a government that has fallen in the polls as quickly as this one.”
Labour is facing backlash for unpopular decisions such as means testing winter fuel payments and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
Sir John notes that in this new era of multi-party politics, the Reform UK party is gaining traction.
Labour is facing unprecedented challenges with a leader who lacks strong political instincts and a party that struggles to create a coherent narrative.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how damaging is early bad polling, and can perceptions be changed?
‘They have certainly got time’
Image: Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, says there is no set rule for how polling trends will play out over time.
He explains that some past prime ministers saw gradual declines in popularity, while others experienced fluctuating levels of support.
Thatcher, Blair, and Cameron’s popularity ebbed and flowed based on various circumstances, including how competent the opposition was perceived to be.
Given that Labour is still early in its term, there is time for them to make improvements.
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Despite grim polling numbers, some Labour insiders believe the public will support them as they begin to see the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges.
There is evidence that people are willing to give Labour the benefit of the doubt as they work towards their goals.
However, it’s crucial for Labour to start making progress on key issues like affordability and access to healthcare to solidify public support before the next election.
Mr Tryl warns that if Labour doesn’t address these issues in a timely manner, the public mood against the party could solidify, much like what happened to Joe Biden in the US.
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a former Labour spokesman, advises Starmer to learn from the mistakes made in the US and define what a center-left government should look like.
He emphasizes the importance of not appearing as part of the establishment and suggests that a turnaround is possible with the right approach.
Necesitan verse sensatos y moderados pero al mismo tiempo demostrar que son diferentes. Eso no es tarea fácil, admite, y uno de los predecesores de Starmer, el Sr. Corbyn, no logró llevar a cabo con su enorme programa de gasto fiscal que fue rechazado en las elecciones de 2019.
Con incluso menos margen de maniobra en el gasto público que entonces, el Sr. Matthewson dice que el Laborismo necesita definir sus valores con políticas audaces y socialmente progresistas, pero que no cuesten una fortuna.
“La política de impuestos a las escuelas privadas es un claro ejemplo de este tipo de cosas”, dice. “La mayoría de la gente no envía a sus hijos a escuelas privadas, y a la mayoría de la gente le gusta eso. Es un asunto de valores.”
La reforma de las drogas y la reforma democrática son otras áreas en las que el Laborismo podría destacarse de los Conservadores, agrega, advirtiendo que Mr. Farage estará “fortalecido” por la victoria de Donald Trump, lo que supone un gran riesgo en las próximas elecciones en el Reino Unido.
Su “narrativa central”, dice, es “que hay una élite de izquierda gobernando el mundo”.
“Es un sinsentido, pero es la narrativa que funciona. Y cuanto más te pareces a eso, cuanto más intentas ser responsable y llenar los zapatos del gobierno anterior, más caes en esa trampa.”
¿Puede el Laborismo recuperarse?
Por supuesto, mientras que el Sr. Biden tuvo cuatro años, el Sr. Starmer tiene cinco, así que por ahora al menos, el tiempo está de su lado.
Como nos recuerda Sir John, solo hay realmente un evento del que un líder no puede recuperarse, algo que Liz Truss sabe muy bien.
“Si presides sobre una crisis de mercado, se acabó – estás muerto”, dice.
“De lo contrario, es entrega, entrega, entrega.”