“Harris could win the popular vote but still lose the election, as we saw in 2016. However, given the coordinated effort to shift perceptions of the race, it seems more likely that there is an attempt to undermine confidence in the election process by suggesting the outcome is already predetermined.”
Regardless of the accuracy of prediction markets, the influence of large bettors on these markets raises questions about their reliability. With just a few weeks left until the election, it remains to be seen whether these markets will accurately predict the outcome, or if they will be manipulated by those with deep pockets and ulterior motives.
Por otro lado, si alguien decidiera invertir en manipular la percepción pública de esta carrera, no hay ningún beneficio real en gastar dinero en la pregunta de quién ganará el voto popular, cuando lo único que importa es el colegio electoral.